(The Center Square) - New polling released Monday shows Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford are tied in this year's gubernatorial race in the swing state of Nevada.
The Noble Predictive Insights poll found that 39% of voters favor Lombardo and 38% prefer Ford, with 17% still undecided. The data comes from 845 registered voters from March 10-13 with a 3.37% margin of error.
The new survey says that the race could be decided by population groups outside of Las Vegas - and often outside of the political focus.
The poll detailed a “disproportionately independent, moderate, Hispanic, female, and Washoe [County]-based,” undecided Nevadan voter. Lombardo and Ford are expected to win their parties' primaries, but only have months to convince the potentially decisive blocs of their political vision before the Nov. 3 general election.
“Pocketbook [issues] are the No. 1 issue – housing affordability, jobs, inflation, cost of gas at the pump,” Mike Noble, founder of polling company Noble Predictive Insights, told The Center Square. “Can Lombardo talk about what he is doing to steer the ship in the right direction? Or Ford has to make the case that the current leadership is rudderless, and he will be the salvation for the electorate to ease up those pocketbook [issues].”
Amid skyrocketing gas prices and near all-time high housing valuations, the economy is expected to play a central role in this year’s elections. Gas was at $4.91 a gallon Monday, an increase of more than $1 since the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran started a month ago, according to AAA.
Somos Votantes, a Latino rights political action group, agreed that pocketbook issues would be decisive for many Latino voters this year.
“Latino voters in Nevada are pragmatic, but our polling shows their concerns are nearly unanimous: The cost of living, wages that don't keep up, food prices, health care affordability, and the impact of tariffs on everyday essentials – these are the issues that dominate conversations and will inform their decision come November,” said Leal-Santillan, national director of communications for Somos Votantes.
“Any candidate who wants to earn Latino support needs to offer real, concrete answers to those questions,” Leal-Santillan told The Center Square. “According to our polling, Latino voters are paying close attention. They are highly motivated to participate, and they will be assessing candidates through the lens of their lived experience – not through campaign promises alone."
The Center Square reached out to Lombardo's and Ford's campaign offices for comment. Lombardo's campaign team didn't respond by press time, but Ford's campaign office stressed the economy's importance to the election.
“Voters know that under Joe Lombardo, Nevada is suffering from high costs, sky-high unemployment and an economy lagging behind the rest of the nation in job growth — all while Lombardo puts cheerleading for Trump over serving working families,” Ford campaign spokesperson Prerna Jagadeesh said.
“In contrast, Attorney General Aaron Ford has fought to lower costs and create new good-paying union jobs throughout his time in public service," Jagadeesh said, answering The Center Square's questions by email. "Ford will continue to be laser-focused on making Nevada a place that Nevadans can afford to call home — and that’s why he will win in November.”
Noble said that among undecided demographic voting groups in Nevada, Lombardo was doing better than Ford with independent and moderate voters. Ford had more trust among Latinos, women and Washoe County residents. The county includes Reno.
Nevada is one of a handful of purple states, where local and national elections swing between Democrats and Republicans. In 2024, the Silver State narrowly elected President Donald Trump, but reelected three national Democrats: U.S. Sen. Jacky Rosen and U.S. Reps. Susie Lee and Steven Horsford.
Democrats have majorities in the state Senate and Assembly, but lack enough votes to override Lombardo's vetoes. This arrangement caused headlines after the Republican governor vetoed a record number of bills after both of the legislative sessions during his four-year term. Nevada is among four states where the Legislature meets only in odd-numbered years.
“Joe Lombardo is actually outperforming the generic ballot. Democrats currently have a four point edge, but yet Lombardo is plus one,” said Noble, who explained how Lombardo was outperforming his own party.
“He is running more as himself,” Noble added. “He's not a full-Trump branded candidate or anything like that, and he's got positive favorability … He's overall running pretty well in an environment that's pretty tough for Republicans.”
This year Ford is looking to restore the Democratic Party’s trifecta of power by winning the gubernatorial race, despite having only around one-seventh the campaign funds compared to Lombardo, as reported by the Secretary of State’s Office in January. Democrats held the Senate, Assembly and governor's office from 2019-2022. Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak was succeeded by Lombardo, who served two terms as sheriff of Clark County, where Las Vegas is located.
