(The Center Square) - Lawmakers across the nation have raised concerns that bets on wildfires, popularized on prediction market sites, could encourage arson.
Nevada's U.S. senators recently joined other Democrats in asking the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission to ban betting on wildfires. The pushback comes amid an historic summer of wildfires.
“I’ve heard from Nevadans that are disgusted at the thought of people gambling on the loss of Americans’ lives and property,” U.S. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nevada, told The Center Square by email. “I have demanded the CFTC stop any onshore prediction market bets concerning wildfires, and I will not stop until Americans have the answers they need.”
Cortez Masto was joined by Sen. Jacky Rosen, D-Nevada, and seven other Democratic U.S. senators in a letter to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig last week. In it, the lawmakers raised concerns over wildfire event contracts offered on prediction markets, and asked for a response from the agency by Aug. 14. Besides Nevada, the senators are from California, Oregon, New Mexico, Minnesota and New Hampshire.
“These markets risk creating perverse incentives, undermining public trust and commodifying human suffering in ways that warrant careful scrutiny,” read the senators’ letter.
The $15 billion prediction markets company Polymarket has previously offered bets over the spread of wildfires, including, “When will the Palisades wildfire be fully contained?” The bet, in reference to the early 2025 Palisades fire in Los Angeles that killed 12 people, brought in over $700,000.
The prediction markets company has previously come under scrutiny for other political and natural disaster-based bet offerings. One ongoing event contract asks bettors, “Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?”
But Polymarket has pushed back at the criticism, telling The Center Square that it makes its money on a processing fee, not the outcomes of bets and that removing predictions markets would make accurate information less accessible.
The senators’ effort against wildfire bets comes as Nevada and other Western states face their worst wildfire season by acres burned in over a decade. At 6.4 million acres, the 2026 wildfire season is 54% above the 10-year average according to the U.S. National Interagency Fire Center.
U.S. users of Polymarket do not currently have access to wildfire-based bets. The senators’ letter argued it was, “Only a matter of time before other U.S. based Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) try to offer these.”
One prediction markets website, Wyldfyre, offered bets on California wildfires earlier this summer with the tagline, “You can’t predict fire, but you can trade on it.” The website offered only paper trades and did not respond to a request for comment by The Center Square.
The senators’ letter asked the CFTC if the agency was considering a ban or any sort of plan on event contracts related to wildfires, and whether the agency believed wildfire-related bets were in the public’s interest.
The CFTC did not respond to requests for comment by The Center Square. The Office of Sen. Cortez Masto told The Center Square this week that none of the senators had received a response.