(The Center Square) – Democrats are declaring victory in a special election that will flip a red seat blue and add to their narrow majority in the Pennsylvania state House.
Brandon Dukes, a loan administrator, leads Scott Timko, a military veteran and commercial pilot, by 97 votes in the special election for the 12th state House District. As of Wednesday afternoon, the Associated Press has yet to formally declare a winner, although Dukes and other Democrats have issued statements expressing optimism in a victory over Timko, a Republican.
“We want to count every vote, every provisional, every overseas voter, but based on these results, I have nothing but gratitude for the support of my friends, family, staff and volunteers who have supported me through this entire journey,” Dukes said in a statement late Tuesday night. “We can now do so much more in the State House to deliver real wins for working families.”
“I plan to get to work on day one to make our roads like 228 safer and more convenient, to better fund our children’s schools, to make healthcare more affordable, and to bring costs down across the board for our community here in Butler County,” he added.
The special election for the 12th state House was triggered by state Rep. Stephanie Scialabba, a Republican, announcing that she was resigning from office in the spring.
The district, which covers parts of Butler County, has long been considered Republican-friendly territory.
In 2024, Scialabba won her bid by just under 30 points, while President Donald Trump won the district by about 18 points.
Democrats from various levels of government in the Keystone State and beyond celebrated what appears to be an upset victory.
“Pennsylvanians are rising up and using their power to combat the chaos, cruelty, and corruption — and we’re not slowing down,” Gov. Josh Shapiro wrote on social media late Tuesday night. “I was proud to back Brandon. Congratulations State Representative-Elect Dukes — I look forward to getting stuff done together.”
U.S. Rep. Chris Deluzio, D-Allegheny, celebrated the news on social media, calling it a “huge Butler County win,” and included a picture alongside Dukes when he was campaigning for him.
“Brandon and @TheButlerDems showed that when we stand up and fight back, we win,” Deluzio wrote. “I was proud to have campaigned with you, Brandon — congrats! Let’s do it again in November!”
U.S. Rep. Brendan Boyle, D-Philadelphia, noted that the seat was previously held by state Rep. Daryl Metcalfe, who he described as “FAR RIGHT” and “MAGA before Trump.”
“The fact we just flipped this seat tonight is a political earthquake,” Boyle wrote.
The results even garnered the attention of former U.S. Transportation Sec. Pete Buttigieg, who backed Dukes bid.
“This is a big deal: Brandon Dukes just flipped a Pennsylvania state House seat held by Republicans for almost 30 years,” Buttigieg wrote. “His victory in Butler County reflects voters' readiness for change, and the trust that he has earned in his district. I'm proud to be in his corner.”
While Democrats appeared energized for this special election, Republicans also deployed several elected officials during the race to boost support for Timko.
“Volunteers are out in force for @ScottTimkoPA in the HD12 Special Election! Thank you @ScottPresler @AaronBernstine @JeremyShafferPA @RepDelozier for launching the morning team. Thank you @DaveMcCormickPA @DaveSunday_ @MikeKellyPA for your support this week!,” the Pennsylvania House Republican Campaign Committee wrote on social media on Saturday.
Despite the GOP voter registration advantage, Lt. Gov. Austin Davis also joined Dukes on the campaign trail on Sunday.
“I would not have been there had we thought it wasn't a seat that we can be competitive in and that we can win,” Davis said in response to a question from The Center Square on Monday. “I think we absolutely have an opportunity there.”
“If you look over the last few election cycles, that seat has trended closer and closer to Democrats. It's a seat that Governor Shapiro and I won four years ago by a close margin, and I think the environment's right to flip that seat,” he continued. “So, I have a lot of high hopes and possibilities that Brandon Dukes is going to be able to pull out a win.”
Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chair Eugene DePasquale believes the results on Tuesday evening “sets the stage for this November’s midterm elections.”
“Pennsylvanians across the political spectrum are sick and tired of Republicans’ chaotic, corrupt, and cost-raising agenda — and they’re ready to reject them at the polls and elect Democrats up and down the ballot in historic fashion,” DePasquale said. “With this momentum at our backs, Democrats will continue working to win up and down the ballot in every corner of the Commonwealth to expand our state House majority, flip control of the state Senate, and reelect Governor Josh Shapiro and Lieutenant Governor Austin Davis to secure the first Democratic trifecta in Harrisburg in more than 30 years.”
Dukes will serve out the remainder of Scialabba’s term that is set to end at the end of the year.
The rematch between Dukes and Timko is set in November to determine who will represent the seat for the following two years.
