(The Center Square) - The majority of voters across the country support state bans on transgender athletes competing in girls’ and women’s sports, according to The Center Square Voters' Voice Poll.
The Voters’ Voice Poll found that 68% of registered voters support allowing the Supreme Court to uphold state bans on transgender women competing in women’s sports.
The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights between March 2-5, 2026. The poll sample included 2,659 respondents, comprised of 952 Republicans, 934 Democrats, and 773 Independents, of which 330 are True Independents, which Noble Predictive refers to as independents who, when asked if they leaned toward one of the major parties, chose neither. It is among the most comprehensive tracking polls in the country.
Across partisan lines, a clear divide emerged between Republicans and Democrats. About 88% of Republican voters supported upholding state bans on transgender women competing in women’s sports whereas 49% of Democrat voters said the same.
Mike Noble, founder of Noble Predictive Insights, said the debate over transgender athletes is a “wedge issue” where Republicans have an advantage. About 49% of independent voters supported transgender sports bans, with 65% of true independents agreeing on the issue.
“Democrats seem really out of touch with those political folks in the middle of the aisle,” Noble said. “Republicans have been smart to keep going after this because this is a wedge issue for Democrats.”
About 51% of Democrat voters said they would not support the U.S. Supreme Court upholding state bans on transgender women competing in women’s sports. Only about 35% of true independents said the same.
In January, justices on the U.S. Supreme Court appeared skeptical of allowing transgender women to compete in girls’ and women’s sports. The court heard challenges to laws in Idaho and West Virginia barring transgender athletes from competing in recreational and college sports.
Currently, 27 states have laws or restrictions that prevent transgender women from competing in girls’ and women’s sports.
The court is expected to issue a decision in the transgender athlete cases by July. Noble said the outcome in the case could affect how other states legislate with transgender athletes.
“I think this is really important in the swing states of what elected officials are doing and I could see some Democrats potentially moving on this issue pending the court outcome,” Noble said.
Interestingly, Noble found a relatively insignificant divide between age groups on support for transgender bans. About 67% of respondents ages 18-29 support state bans, compared to 70% of respondents ages 65 and older who said the same.
Adults aged 45-64 made up the smallest amount of relative support for state bans but still showed 66% in support of the Supreme Court upholding West Virginia's and Idaho’s policies.
Along gender lines, the gap between male and female respondents was slightly more prominent. About 75% of male respondents supported a ban on transgender women in women’s sports and 62% of female respondents said the same.
“It’s interesting that there’s a gender split,” Noble said. “Males are pretty, pretty dead set on it. Women still definitely lean towards saying, ‘Yeah we should remove it.’”
Out of voters in each region of the United States, respondents from the northeast made up the smallest percentage of those who agreed states should uphold the bans.
“Republicans know they have a really great issue here,” Noble said. “This is a classic wedge issue: Your base is on board, you’re able to peel off some of the other side and you’re doing great with independents.”
The poll’s margin of error is +/- 1.9%.
