(The Center Square) – As the midterm elections approach, a growing number of voters view President Donald Trump’s tariffs as measures that raise prices for American consumers rather than effective tools for strengthening U.S. businesses on the global stage, according to a new poll.
The Center Square Voters' Voice poll finds that a plurality of voters say American consumers are shouldering the costs. With concerns about rising prices and economic strain still top of mind since the pandemic, the debate over who truly pays for import taxes is shaping voter perceptions and could influence the outcome at the polls.
About 42% of voters say American consumers primarily pay the cost of tariffs, while 38% believe the burden is shared by all parties involved in trade. Just 12% think foreign countries pay, and only 8% say American businesses absorb the costs.
The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights between March 2 and 5, 2026. The poll sample included 2,659 respondents, comprising 952 Republicans, 934 Democrats, and 773 Independents, of whom 330 are True Independents, those who, when asked whether they leaned toward one of the major parties, chose neither. It is among the most comprehensive tracking polls in the country.
The White House has framed tariffs as a way to negotiate with foreign governments to advance American interests, but voters overwhelmingly believe the costs ultimately fall on Americans.
Republicans were less likely than other registered voters to say American consumers bear the costs. Among Republicans, 27% say consumers pay, 21% say foreign nations pay, 9% believe American businesses pay, and 43% think all parties share the higher costs.
That's different from independents, who could help decide the upcoming elections. Among independent voters, 42% say consumers pay the cost, while 8% say foreign countries bear the burden, 6% say foreign companies and 41% say all of those groups are sharing the increased costs.
Hispanic voters are especially likely to say American consumers bear the cost, a trend that reflects heightened sensitivity to price increases, according to pollster Mike Noble.
"Voters say tariffs are driving up the prices for Americans," Noble told The Center Square. "I don't think it's really like sunken through yet to a lot of folks, but basically, even with tariffs being politically popular in some circles, what the data shows is that voters overwhelmingly believe Americans end up paying the bill."
Phillip Magness, a senior fellow at the Independent Institute, said higher prices could frustrate voters who have felt squeezed for years in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
"Not all have made the connection yet that tariffs are tantamount to a tax increase on affected goods," he told The Center Square. "I suspect this connection will become more pronounced as the election approaches, as other surveys indicate that voters continue to express concerns about rising prices in general – a theme that harmed the Democrats in 2024 due to inflation from the Biden years, and that could harm Republicans in 2026 due to price increases from the tariffs."
The White House said tariffs are helping Americans and the nation.
"In the past year, President Trump has used tariffs to renegotiate broken trade deals, lower prescription drug prices, cut our trade deficit, and secure trillions in investments to reshore manufacturing," White House spokesman Kush Desai told The Center Square. "The Administration will continue to focus on cementing and touting these victories for the American people in the weeks and months ahead."
In April 2025, Trump unilaterally imposed the highest tariffs in nearly a century. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in February that Trump overstepped by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs worldwide, but did not decide what should happen to the estimated $175 billion in import taxes already collected. Importers and consumers are fighting in court for refunds, but the U.S. Treasury Secretary has said he does not expect consumers to get any money back.
Importers, including American businesses, pay duties directly to U.S. Customs and Border Protection. While some exporters have reduced prices in response to Trump’s shifting tariffs, most have not. Research indicates that U.S. consumers and businesses bear the majority of import tax costs, with some studies showing that businesses pass along up to 95% of these costs directly to consumers.
The poll's margin of error is +/-1.9%.
